The Two Worlds
The predictions are born in the pristine Cathedral of Capability—the research labs, the closed beta tests, the internal demonstrations where AI performs miracles. But those predictions will be tested in the chaotic, friction-filled Bazaar of Integration—the actual world of human institutions, psychological resistance, regulatory frameworks, and economic reality.
The laws of the Bazaar are not written in Python or PyTorch. They are written in the slow ink of human culture, institutional inertia, and the stubborn persistence of the status quo.
The Pattern: Predictions vs. Reality
Across all major AI companies, we observe the same pattern:
- Genuine technical achievement in controlled research environments
- Breathless predictions of near-term societal transformation
- Initial excitement generating massive attention
- Pilot purgatory where deployment stalls due to accuracy, liability, integration, and cultural barriers
- Slow, uneven adoption measured in years rather than months
- Revised timelines that quietly extend predictions
Why Predictions Fail
Laboratory ≠ Reality: The Cathedral operates under perfect conditions—clean data, controlled environments, no regulatory friction. The Bazaar operates under messy reality—dirty data, institutional inertia, legal frameworks that take years to adapt.
Capability ≠ Integration: ChatGPT reached 100 million users faster than any consumer application in history—yet two years later, fundamental questions about reliable integration into professional workflows remain unresolved.
Field Notes & Ephemera
Field Note: They built a perfect engine and assumed the world was a racetrack. They forgot about the mud.