The Efficiency Dip
We are currently in the dip. Companies are buying AI, hiring consultants, and retraining staff—all costs that lower immediate output. The "Six-Month Revolution" ignores this fundamental law of economic history.
The Verification Tax
Unique to Generative AI is the "Verification Tax"—or the "Vigilance Burden." Unlike deterministic software (which either works or crashes), probabilistic AI generates confident errors (hallucinations). This forces the human user to act as a permanent debugger, fact-checking every output. This added labor often negates the speed gains of generation, extending the trough of the J-Curve until systems reach "Level 3" maturity (calibrated trust).
Field Notes & Ephemera
Field Note: You cannot put a jet engine on a stagecoach and expect it to fly. You have to build an airport. Building airports takes time.